2020 Democratic Nomination Odds – End of 2019
It’s hard to believe that I have been clocking the wanna-be DNC nominees for an entire year. While I’ve collected tons of varied data in 2019, this particular side hustle has been the most difficult. Life’s hard on rabid blue Twitter when your world is logic and people in their feelings over Trump…
I’ve shared the info I have extracted from volumes of scraped data with the world through social media – only to be called a liar, a MAGAer(?), and even a racist for reporting the facts: 2020 is far from a slam dunk for the Democrats.
I finally told one old dude to “Google me bitxh“. Not my proudest moment, but I am all about the data – I am not on the red team or the blue team.
It’s Down to 10 Potential Nominees
As we head into the new year and the conceivable candidates gear up for the Iowa Caucuses ( WHY AMERICA!! ) I thought it was as good a time as any to run the numbers. My system suggests that we are down to 10 legitimate possible nominees. I will still include @JulianCastro for the sake of argument as he does have 1%…
I admit to not publishing as regularly as earlier in the year, but paying work comes first obviously. I have continued to collect the data on the candidates on a regular basis and predicted the fall of Sen. Harris weeks before it came.
This post I’ll give you more of a fact than a prediction – Andrew Yang is hella popular on the Internet. He is undervalued by at least 2.x points in the traditional polls in the opinion of my model. Vegas Recognizes. This month I have Yang in the top 6 for the first time ever.
My model likes Tulsi Gabbard more than Klobuchar. Slightly.
I only mention this because it is one of the stark differences between my results and the mainstream polls. I realize the DNC would rather have Klobuchar, or hell almost anyone other than Tulsi, I think that very well may be part of her appeal.
Bloomberg has significant support. When you can announce and drop right into the top 5 you are a player. He seems to have stalled under 10% however, even with a huge ad buy. Only a fool would count him out at this point.
The bottom line is that it’s still Biden’s race to lose, but as much as the DNC might try Bernie Sanders will not go quietly into that good night.