2020 Presidential Odds
With all of the news that has begun to saturate old and new media regarding the upcoming mid-term elections – I started thinking about the real political prize, the 2020 presidential race.
I was wondering who had the best odds of becoming the next president of the United States at this point. I decided to send my bots across the Interwebs and collect data from various news, polling, and betting odds sites to try and determine who has the best odds to become the next President of the United States. Keep in mind that this is just a data snap-shot. It only reflects the odds as of July 2018.
First I used Python and Pandas to wrangle the data my bots brought back into a format I could make some sense out off. I then wrote some code to collate the data and start getting an idea of the presidential political zeitgeist. As you can imagine the potential presidential field is huge at this point. I limited my results to “front runner” potential candidates as those candidates that had better than thirty-five to one odds. I also will continue to track “other” potential candidates if they show up as one hundred to one or better.
The sites with the data that figured most strongly in my results are listed below.
The 2020 Presidential Election Odds Video:
It turns out that right now Donald Trump has the best odds to be elected President ( again ) in 2020 with three to one odds. The biggest reason for this lead in this odds race is that is he the presumptive Republican nominee and nobody really knows who the blue team will put up as their nominee. Most of the names on the Democratic side of the race polling the highest are tired old names like Sanders, Biden, and Hillary Clinton… Elizabeth Warren comes in right after Bernie (10:1) with twelve to one odds.
Corey Booker and Kamala Harris make very strong showings as potential Democratic nominees at fifteen to one and twenty to one odds respectively. Nikki Haley at thirty to one odds is the highest ( non executive branch incumbent ) potential republican candidate with thirty to one odds. Tragically Oprah Winfrey has better odds than Haley does at twenty-five to one. A much better celebrity option in my humble opinion would be Mark Cuban. Mr Cuban has the same odds as Ambassador Haley. Interestingly enough I could not determine, with any certainty, which party Mr. Cuban would choose to affiliate himself with if he does decide to run.
There were some interesting “others” like Michelle Obama coming at fifty to one and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson at sixty-five to one. For the record my results have Kanye at over one hundred to one odds.