2018 House Midtem Election Predictions

The Democrats will take back the house on Tuesday, November 6, 2018.
There is no blue wave however and it will be closer than many pundits are predicting. I have predicted all 435 house races, with the help of Python, Pandas, SciKit-learn, etc.
There are a handful of races that will tell the tale, but my model is predicting that it is going to be a difficult two years coming up for Donald J Trump.
Those of you looking closely have already noticed my overall prediction in the screen capture up there:
D: 221 R: 214 Name: party, dtype: int64
My model has the Democrats winning 221 of the 435 available seats.
This is a gain of 26 seats – which is a big gain but hardly a blue wave. In fact it is barely above the 218 they need to assume control of the house.
I am sure that the Republican party’s talking points will focus on the Democrats narrow margin of victory. I am not sure that will matter to the 116th Congresses House Judiciary Committee…
The closest house races in my model:
TX | 7 | John Culberson | R | 49.57 |
OH | 12 | Troy Balderson | R | 49.74 |
OH | 1 | Steve Chabot | R | 50.68 |
CA | 39 | Gil Cisneros | D | 50.72 |
VA | 7 | Dave Brat | R | 50.87 |
NE | 2 | Don Bacon | R | 51.33 |
NJ | 3 | Andy Kim | D | 51.45 |
KY | 6 | Andy Barr | R | 51.66 |
KS | 2 | Paul Davis | D | 52.00 |
MI | 8 | Mike Bishop | R | 52.21 |
The Texas 7th, and the Ohio 1st and 12th could easily go either way. If I was doing a Cook Report kind of thing they would be toss-ups. But calling a race a toss-up is the cowards way out!
There are another 10 races that I have the winner in the 50-something percentile. I wouldn’t bet money on those either. Therefore there are 20 races that I think are within a 5 point swing either way.
On the flip-side there are 380 races that are stone cold locks. That leaves another 35 races that, were I to punk out, I would call leaning left or right.
As this chart shows my model has a lower confidence in more Republican predictions, and has more Democrat predictions near the 100% mark. This means that I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the Democrats picked up a few more than 26 seats I am projecting.
Here is my models prediction for all 435 House Races:
state | district | candidate | party | incumbent | percentage |
AK | 1 | Don Young | R | TRUE | 85.87 |
AL | 1 | Bradley Byrne | R | TRUE | 98.43 |
AL | 2 | Martha Roby | R | TRUE | 96.59 |
AL | 3 | Mike Rogers | R | TRUE | 98.21 |
AL | 4 | Robert B. Aderholt | R | TRUE | 98.58 |
AL | 5 | Mo Brooks | R | TRUE | 98.29 |
AL | 6 | Gary Palmer | R | TRUE | 98.49 |
AL | 7 | Terri A. Sewell | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
AR | 1 | Rick Crawford | R | TRUE | 98.32 |
AR | 2 | French Hill | R | TRUE | 76.36 |
AR | 3 | Steve Womack | R | TRUE | 98.39 |
AR | 4 | Bruce Westerman | R | TRUE | 98.35 |
AZ | 1 | Tom O’Halleran | D | TRUE | 95.03 |
AZ | 2 | Ann Kirkpatrick | D | FALSE | 89.16 |
AZ | 3 | Raul Grijalva | D | TRUE | 98.53 |
AZ | 4 | Paul A. Gosar | R | TRUE | 98.42 |
AZ | 5 | Andy Biggs | R | TRUE | 98.27 |
AZ | 6 | David Schweikert | R | TRUE | 86.39 |
AZ | 7 | Ruben Gallego | D | TRUE | 98.65 |
AZ | 8 | Debbie Lesko | R | TRUE | 87.53 |
AZ | 9 | Greg Stanton | D | FALSE | 97.73 |
CA | 1 | Doug LaMalfa | R | TRUE | 90.77 |
CA | 2 | Jared Huffman | D | TRUE | 98.62 |
CA | 3 | John Garamendi | D | TRUE | 98.41 |
CA | 4 | Tom McClintock | R | TRUE | 84.08 |
CA | 5 | Mike Thompson | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
CA | 6 | Doris O. Matsui | D | TRUE | 98.60 |
CA | 7 | Ami Bera | D | TRUE | 97.15 |
CA | 8 | Paul Cook | R | TRUE | 95.80 |
CA | 9 | Jerry McNerney | D | TRUE | 98.38 |
CA | 10 | Josh Harder | D | FALSE | 65.62 |
CA | 11 | Mark DeSaulnier | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
CA | 12 | Nancy Pelosi | D | TRUE | 98.69 |
CA | 13 | Barbara Lee | D | TRUE | 98.67 |
CA | 14 | Jackie Speier | D | TRUE | 98.63 |
CA | 15 | Eric Swalwell | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
CA | 16 | Jim Costa | D | TRUE | 98.12 |
CA | 17 | Ro Khanna | D | TRUE | 98.61 |
CA | 18 | Anna G. Eshoo | D | TRUE | 98.60 |
CA | 19 | Zoe Lofgren | D | TRUE | 98.66 |
CA | 20 | Jimmy Panetta | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
CA | 21 | David Valadao | R | TRUE | 71.28 |
CA | 22 | Devin Nunes | R | TRUE | 95.56 |
CA | 23 | Kevin McCarthy | R | TRUE | 98.36 |
CA | 24 | Salud Carbajal | D | TRUE | 96.97 |
CA | 25 | Katie Hill | D | FALSE | 68.56 |
CA | 26 | Julia Brownley | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
CA | 27 | Judy Chu | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
CA | 28 | Adam Schiff | D | TRUE | 98.62 |
CA | 29 | Tony Cárdenas | D | TRUE | 98.62 |
CA | 30 | Brad Sherman | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
CA | 31 | Pete Aguilar | D | TRUE | 98.25 |
CA | 32 | Grace Napolitano | D | TRUE | 98.63 |
CA | 33 | Ted Lieu | D | TRUE | 98.56 |
CA | 34 | Jimmy Gomez | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
CA | 35 | Norma Torres | D | TRUE | 98.56 |
CA | 36 | Raul Ruiz | D | TRUE | 98.25 |
CA | 37 | Karen Bass | D | TRUE | 98.69 |
CA | 38 | Linda Sánchez | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
CA | 39 | Gil Cisneros | D | FALSE | 49.72 |
CA | 40 | Lucille Roybal-Allard | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
CA | 41 | Mark Takano | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
CA | 42 | Ken Calvert | R | TRUE | 96.48 |
CA | 43 | Maxine Waters | D | TRUE | 98.61 |
CA | 44 | Nanette Diaz Barragán | D | TRUE | 98.56 |
CA | 45 | Katie Porter | D | FALSE | 53.42 |
CA | 46 | J. Luis Correa | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
CA | 47 | Alan Lowenthal | D | TRUE | 98.51 |
CA | 48 | Harley Rouda | D | FALSE | 62.77 |
CA | 49 | Mike Levin | D | FALSE | 80.05 |
CA | 50 | Duncan D. Hunter | R | TRUE | 91.38 |
CA | 51 | Juan Vargas | D | TRUE | 98.57 |
CA | 52 | Scott Peters | D | TRUE | 98.40 |
CA | 53 | Susan Davis | D | TRUE | 98.52 |
CO | 1 | Diana DeGette | D | TRUE | 98.54 |
CO | 2 | Joe Neguse | D | FALSE | 98.36 |
CO | 3 | Scott Tipton | R | TRUE | 72.81 |
CO | 4 | Ken Buck | R | TRUE | 96.14 |
CO | 5 | Doug Lamborn | R | TRUE | 96.52 |
CO | 6 | Jason Crow | D | FALSE | 61.70 |
CO | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | D | TRUE | 98.33 |
CT | 1 | John B. Larson | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
CT | 2 | Joe Courtney | D | TRUE | 98.44 |
CT | 3 | Rosa L. DeLauro | D | TRUE | 98.53 |
CT | 4 | Jim Himes | D | TRUE | 98.40 |
CT | 5 | Jahana Hayes | D | FALSE | 96.56 |
DE | 1 | Lisa Blunt Rochester | D | TRUE | 97.92 |
FL | 1 | Matt Gaetz | R | TRUE | 98.52 |
FL | 2 | Neal Dunn | R | TRUE | 98.45 |
FL | 3 | Ted Yoho | R | TRUE | 97.14 |
FL | 4 | John Rutherford | R | TRUE | 98.48 |
FL | 5 | Al Lawson | D | TRUE | 98.52 |
FL | 6 | Michael Waltz | R | FALSE | 81.78 |
FL | 7 | Stephanie Murphy | D | TRUE | 95.78 |
FL | 8 | Bill Posey | R | TRUE | 96.87 |
FL | 9 | Darren Soto | D | TRUE | 98.40 |
FL | 10 | Val Demings | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
FL | 11 | Daniel Webster | R | TRUE | 98.39 |
FL | 12 | Gus M. Bilirakis | R | TRUE | 97.12 |
FL | 13 | Charlie Crist | D | TRUE | 98.32 |
FL | 14 | Kathy Castor | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
FL | 15 | Ross Spano | R | FALSE | 80.12 |
FL | 16 | Vern Buchanan | R | TRUE | 88.03 |
FL | 17 | Greg Steube | R | FALSE | 98.09 |
FL | 18 | Brian Mast | R | TRUE | 90.13 |
FL | 19 | Francis Rooney | R | TRUE | 97.81 |
FL | 20 | Alcee L. Hastings | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
FL | 21 | Lois Frankel | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
FL | 22 | Ted Deutch | D | TRUE | 98.42 |
FL | 23 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | D | TRUE | 98.47 |
FL | 24 | Frederica Wilson | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
FL | 25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | R | TRUE | 79.57 |
FL | 26 | Carlos Curbelo | R | TRUE | 54.10 |
FL | 27 | Donna Shalala | D | FALSE | 93.78 |
GA | 1 | Buddy Carter | R | TRUE | 98.18 |
GA | 2 | Sanford D. Bishop Jr. | D | TRUE | 98.44 |
GA | 3 | A. Drew Ferguson | R | TRUE | 98.48 |
GA | 4 | Hank Johnson | D | TRUE | 98.57 |
GA | 5 | John Lewis | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
GA | 6 | Karen C. Handel | R | TRUE | 89.92 |
GA | 7 | Rob Woodall | R | TRUE | 76.03 |
GA | 8 | Austin Scott | R | TRUE | 98.77 |
GA | 9 | Doug Collins | R | TRUE | 98.60 |
GA | 10 | Jody Hice | R | TRUE | 98.50 |
GA | 11 | Barry Loudermilk | R | TRUE | 98.45 |
GA | 12 | Rick Allen | R | TRUE | 97.06 |
GA | 13 | David Scott | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
GA | 14 | Tom Graves | R | TRUE | 98.58 |
HI | 1 | Ed Case | D | FALSE | 98.52 |
HI | 2 | Tulsi Gabbard | D | TRUE | 98.60 |
IA | 1 | Abby Finkenauer | D | FALSE | 81.11 |
IA | 2 | David Loebsack | D | TRUE | 97.44 |
IA | 3 | Cindy Axne | D | FALSE | 62.22 |
IA | 4 | Steve King | R | TRUE | 88.44 |
ID | 1 | Russ Fulcher | R | FALSE | 97.58 |
ID | 2 | Mike Simpson | R | TRUE | 98.16 |
IL | 1 | Bobby L. Rush | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
IL | 2 | Robin Kelly | D | TRUE | 98.62 |
IL | 3 | Daniel Lipinski | D | TRUE | 98.51 |
IL | 4 | Jesus “Chuy” Garcia | D | FALSE | 98.65 |
IL | 5 | Mike Quigley | D | TRUE | 98.57 |
IL | 6 | Peter J. Roskam | R | TRUE | 54.59 |
IL | 7 | Danny K. Davis | D | TRUE | 98.65 |
IL | 8 | Raja Krishnamoorthi | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
IL | 9 | Jan Schakowsky | D | TRUE | 98.56 |
IL | 10 | Bradley Schneider | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
IL | 11 | Bill Foster | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
IL | 12 | Mike Bost | R | TRUE | 55.02 |
IL | 13 | Rodney Davis | R | TRUE | 72.93 |
IL | 14 | Randy Hultgren | R | TRUE | 74.77 |
IL | 15 | John Shimkus | R | TRUE | 98.49 |
IL | 16 | Adam Kinzinger | R | TRUE | 96.78 |
IL | 17 | Cheri Bustos | D | TRUE | 98.45 |
IL | 18 | Darin LaHood | R | TRUE | 98.48 |
IN | 1 | Peter Visclosky | D | TRUE | 98.52 |
IN | 2 | Jackie Walorski | R | TRUE | 89.95 |
IN | 3 | Jim Banks | R | TRUE | 98.16 |
IN | 4 | Jim Baird | R | FALSE | 97.79 |
IN | 5 | Susan W. Brooks | R | TRUE | 97.44 |
IN | 6 | Greg Pence | R | FALSE | 98.37 |
IN | 7 | André Carson | D | TRUE | 98.52 |
IN | 8 | Larry Bucshon | R | TRUE | 97.74 |
IN | 9 | Trey Hollingsworth | R | TRUE | 86.09 |
KS | 1 | Roger Marshall | R | TRUE | 98.53 |
KS | 2 | Paul Davis | D | FALSE | 52.00 |
KS | 3 | Kevin Yoder | R | TRUE | 74.89 |
KS | 4 | Ron Estes | R | TRUE | 93.42 |
KY | 1 | James Comer | R | TRUE | 98.49 |
KY | 2 | Brett S. Guthrie | R | TRUE | 98.31 |
KY | 3 | John A. Yarmuth | D | TRUE | 98.20 |
KY | 4 | Thomas Massie | R | TRUE | 98.39 |
KY | 5 | Harold Rogers | R | TRUE | 98.56 |
KY | 6 | Andy Barr | R | TRUE | 51.66 |
LA | 1 | Steve Scalise | R | TRUE | 98.51 |
LA | 2 | Cedric Richmond | D | TRUE | 98.65 |
LA | 3 | Clay Higgins | R | TRUE | 84.90 |
LA | 4 | Mike Johnson | R | TRUE | 98.29 |
LA | 5 | Ralph Abraham | R | TRUE | 98.42 |
LA | 6 | Garrett Graves | R | TRUE | 98.45 |
MA | 1 | Richard E. Neal | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
MA | 2 | James McGovern | D | TRUE | 98.53 |
MA | 3 | Lori Trahan | D | FALSE | 98.42 |
MA | 4 | Joseph P. Kennedy III | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
MA | 5 | Katherine Clark | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
MA | 6 | Seth Moulton | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
MA | 7 | Ayanna Pressley | D | FALSE | 98.77 |
MA | 8 | Stephen F. Lynch | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
MA | 9 | William Keating | D | TRUE | 98.00 |
MD | 1 | Andy Harris | R | TRUE | 97.55 |
MD | 2 | C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
MD | 3 | John P. Sarbanes | D | TRUE | 98.51 |
MD | 4 | Anthony Brown | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
MD | 5 | Steny H. Hoyer | D | TRUE | 98.54 |
MD | 6 | David Trone | D | FALSE | 97.96 |
MD | 7 | Elijah Cummings | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
MD | 8 | Jamie Raskin | D | TRUE | 98.53 |
ME | 1 | Chellie Pingree | D | TRUE | 98.25 |
ME | 2 | Bruce Poliquin | R | TRUE | 55.14 |
MI | 1 | Jack Bergman | R | TRUE | 84.70 |
MI | 2 | Bill Huizenga | R | TRUE | 95.08 |
MI | 3 | Justin Amash | R | TRUE | 96.81 |
MI | 4 | John Moolenaar | R | TRUE | 98.02 |
MI | 5 | Daniel Kildee | D | TRUE | 98.46 |
MI | 6 | Fred Upton | R | TRUE | 84.18 |
MI | 7 | Tim Walberg | R | TRUE | 69.73 |
MI | 8 | Mike Bishop | R | TRUE | 52.21 |
MI | 9 | Andy Levin | D | FALSE | 98.04 |
MI | 10 | Paul Mitchell | R | TRUE | 98.22 |
MI | 11 | Haley Stevens | D | FALSE | 66.38 |
MI | 12 | Debbie Dingell | D | TRUE | 98.53 |
MI | 13 | Rashida Tlaib | D | FALSE | 98.65 |
MI | 14 | Brenda Lawrence | D | TRUE | 98.61 |
MN | 1 | Dan Feehan | D | FALSE | 52.69 |
MN | 2 | Angie Craig | D | FALSE | 71.52 |
MN | 3 | Dean Phillips | D | FALSE | 61.38 |
MN | 4 | Betty McCollum | D | TRUE | 98.51 |
MN | 5 | Ilhan Omar | D | FALSE | 98.61 |
MN | 6 | Tom Emmer | R | TRUE | 98.29 |
MN | 7 | Collin C. Peterson | D | TRUE | 89.20 |
MN | 8 | Pete Stauber | R | FALSE | 52.21 |
MO | 1 | William “Lacy” Clay Jr. | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
MO | 2 | Ann Wagner | R | TRUE | 90.59 |
MO | 3 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | R | TRUE | 98.46 |
MO | 4 | Vicky Hartzler | R | TRUE | 98.36 |
MO | 5 | Emanuel Cleaver | D | TRUE | 98.43 |
MO | 6 | Sam Graves | R | TRUE | 98.44 |
MO | 7 | Billy Long | R | TRUE | 98.50 |
MO | 8 | Jason Smith | R | TRUE | 98.50 |
MS | 1 | Trent Kelly | R | TRUE | 98.34 |
MS | 2 | Bennie G. Thompson | D | TRUE | 98.57 |
MS | 3 | Michael Guest | R | FALSE | 98.01 |
MS | 4 | Steven Palazzo | R | TRUE | 97.91 |
MT | 1 | Greg Gianforte | R | TRUE | 73.74 |
NC | 1 | G.K. Butterfield | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
NC | 2 | George Holding | R | TRUE | 87.88 |
NC | 3 | Walter B. Jones | R | TRUE | 98.77 |
NC | 4 | David Price | D | TRUE | 98.57 |
NC | 5 | Virginia Foxx | R | TRUE | 95.47 |
NC | 6 | Mark Walker | R | TRUE | 89.09 |
NC | 7 | David Rouzer | R | TRUE | 94.74 |
NC | 8 | Richard Hudson | R | TRUE | 87.97 |
NC | 9 | Dan McCready | D | FALSE | 54.97 |
NC | 10 | Patrick T. McHenry | R | TRUE | 98.09 |
NC | 11 | Mark Meadows | R | TRUE | 97.88 |
NC | 12 | Alma Adams | D | TRUE | 98.54 |
NC | 13 | Ted Budd | R | TRUE | 65.50 |
ND | 1 | Kelly Armstrong | R | FALSE | 97.04 |
NE | 1 | Jeff Fortenberry | R | TRUE | 98.32 |
NE | 2 | Don Bacon | R | TRUE | 50.33 |
NE | 3 | Adrian Smith | R | TRUE | 98.54 |
NH | 1 | Chris Pappas | D | FALSE | 81.80 |
NH | 2 | Ann Kuster | D | TRUE | 97.54 |
NJ | 1 | Donald Norcross | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
NJ | 2 | Jeff Van Drew | D | FALSE | 91.08 |
NJ | 3 | Andy Kim | D | FALSE | 50.45 |
NJ | 4 | Chris Smith | R | TRUE | 94.95 |
NJ | 5 | Josh Gottheimer | D | TRUE | 97.60 |
NJ | 6 | Frank Pallone Jr. | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
NJ | 7 | Tom Malinowski | D | FALSE | 60.91 |
NJ | 8 | Albio Sires | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
NJ | 9 | Bill Pascrell Jr. | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
NJ | 10 | Donald Payne Jr. | D | TRUE | 98.64 |
NJ | 11 | Mikie Sherrill | D | FALSE | 74.46 |
NJ | 12 | Bonnie Watson Coleman | D | TRUE | 98.54 |
NM | 1 | Debra A. Haaland | D | FALSE | 97.63 |
NM | 2 | Yvette Herrell | R | FALSE | 71.69 |
NM | 3 | Ben R. Lujan | D | TRUE | 98.47 |
NV | 1 | Dina Titus | D | TRUE | 98.51 |
NV | 2 | Mark Amodei | R | TRUE | 97.30 |
NV | 3 | Susie Lee | D | FALSE | 74.88 |
NV | 4 | Steven A. Horsford | D | FALSE | 87.95 |
NY | 1 | Lee Zeldin | R | TRUE | 88.64 |
NY | 2 | Pete King | R | TRUE | 90.40 |
NY | 3 | Thomas Suozzi | D | TRUE | 97.97 |
NY | 4 | Kathleen Rice | D | TRUE | 98.44 |
NY | 5 | Gregory W. Meeks | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
NY | 6 | Grace Meng | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
NY | 7 | Nydia M. Velázquez | D | TRUE | 98.68 |
NY | 8 | Hakeem Jeffries | D | TRUE | 98.68 |
NY | 9 | Yvette D. Clarke | D | TRUE | 98.64 |
NY | 10 | Jerrold Nadler | D | TRUE | 98.61 |
NY | 11 | Daniel Donovan | R | TRUE | 76.77 |
NY | 12 | Carolyn Maloney | D | TRUE | 98.63 |
NY | 13 | Adriano Espaillat | D | TRUE | 98.71 |
NY | 14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | D | FALSE | 98.61 |
NY | 15 | José E. Serrano | D | TRUE | 98.73 |
NY | 16 | Eliot Engel | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
NY | 17 | Nita Lowey | D | TRUE | 98.57 |
NY | 18 | Sean Patrick Maloney | D | TRUE | 97.52 |
NY | 19 | Antonio Delgado | D | FALSE | 54.96 |
NY | 20 | Paul D. Tonko | D | TRUE | 98.51 |
NY | 21 | Elise Stefanik | R | TRUE | 94.29 |
NY | 22 | Anthony Brindisi | D | FALSE | 67.06 |
NY | 23 | Tom Reed | R | TRUE | 94.78 |
NY | 24 | John Katko | R | TRUE | 72.23 |
NY | 25 | Joseph D. Morelle | D | FALSE | 98.27 |
NY | 26 | Brian Higgins | D | TRUE | 98.56 |
NY | 27 | Chris Collins | R | TRUE | 90.24 |
OH | 1 | Steve Chabot | R | TRUE | 49.08 |
OH | 2 | Brad Wenstrup | R | TRUE | 95.27 |
OH | 3 | Joyce Beatty | D | TRUE | 98.56 |
OH | 4 | Jim Jordan | R | TRUE | 95.70 |
OH | 5 | Robert E. Latta | R | TRUE | 98.10 |
OH | 6 | Bill Johnson | R | TRUE | 98.50 |
OH | 7 | Bob Gibbs | R | TRUE | 91.61 |
OH | 8 | Warren Davidson | R | TRUE | 98.46 |
OH | 9 | Marcy Kaptur | D | TRUE | 98.53 |
OH | 10 | Michael Turner | R | TRUE | 92.75 |
OH | 11 | Marcia L. Fudge | D | TRUE | 98.62 |
OH | 12 | Troy Balderson | R | TRUE | 47.54 |
OH | 13 | Tim Ryan | D | TRUE | 98.52 |
OH | 14 | David Joyce | R | TRUE | 82.26 |
OH | 15 | Steve Stivers | R | TRUE | 94.97 |
OH | 16 | Anthony Gonzalez | R | FALSE | 95.30 |
OK | 1 | Kevin Hern | R | FALSE | 98.04 |
OK | 2 | Markwayne Mullin | R | TRUE | 98.48 |
OK | 3 | Frank Lucas | R | TRUE | 98.55 |
OK | 4 | Tom Cole | R | TRUE | 98.49 |
OK | 5 | Steve Russell | R | TRUE | 85.97 |
OR | 1 | Suzanne Bonamici | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
OR | 2 | Greg Walden | R | TRUE | 98.23 |
OR | 3 | Earl Blumenauer | D | TRUE | 98.63 |
OR | 4 | Peter DeFazio | D | TRUE | 98.04 |
OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | D | TRUE | 98.29 |
PA | 1 | Brian Fitzpatrick | R | TRUE | 67.95 |
PA | 2 | Brendan Boyle | D | TRUE | 98.60 |
PA | 3 | Dwight Evans | D | TRUE | 98.70 |
PA | 4 | Madeleine Dean | D | FALSE | 98.30 |
PA | 5 | Mary Gay Scanlon | D | FALSE | 98.46 |
PA | 6 | Chrissy Houlahan | D | FALSE | 96.37 |
PA | 7 | Susan Wild | D | FALSE | 92.25 |
PA | 8 | Matt Cartwright | D | TRUE | 88.76 |
PA | 9 | Dan Meuser | R | FALSE | 97.65 |
PA | 10 | Scott Perry | R | TRUE | 80.77 |
PA | 11 | Lloyd Smucker | R | TRUE | 94.80 |
PA | 12 | Tom Marino | R | TRUE | 98.46 |
PA | 13 | John Joyce | R | FALSE | 98.51 |
PA | 14 | Guy Reschenthaler | R | FALSE | 96.91 |
PA | 15 | Glenn W. Thompson | R | TRUE | 98.54 |
PA | 16 | Mike Kelly | R | TRUE | 94.53 |
PA | 17 | Conor Lamb | D | TRUE | 92.21 |
PA | 18 | Mike Doyle | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
RI | 1 | David Cicilline | D | TRUE | 98.54 |
RI | 2 | Jim Langevin | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
SC | 1 | Katie Arrington | R | FALSE | 87.07 |
SC | 2 | Joe Wilson | R | TRUE | 97.68 |
SC | 3 | Jeff Duncan | R | TRUE | 98.30 |
SC | 4 | William Timmons | R | FALSE | 98.46 |
SC | 5 | Ralph Norman | R | TRUE | 96.60 |
SC | 6 | James E. Clyburn | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
SC | 7 | Tom Rice | R | TRUE | 97.44 |
SD | 1 | Dusty Johnson | R | FALSE | 96.82 |
TN | 1 | Phil Roe | R | TRUE | 98.55 |
TN | 2 | Tim Burchett | R | FALSE | 98.47 |
TN | 3 | Chuck Fleischmann | R | TRUE | 98.35 |
TN | 4 | Scott DesJarlais | R | TRUE | 97.61 |
TN | 5 | Jim Cooper | D | TRUE | 98.52 |
TN | 6 | John Rose | R | FALSE | 98.52 |
TN | 7 | Mark E. Green | R | FALSE | 98.46 |
TN | 8 | David Kustoff | R | TRUE | 98.50 |
TN | 9 | Steve Cohen | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
TX | 1 | Louie Gohmert | R | TRUE | 98.53 |
TX | 2 | Dan Crenshaw | R | FALSE | 92.94 |
TX | 3 | Van Taylor | R | FALSE | 97.65 |
TX | 4 | John Ratcliffe | R | TRUE | 98.56 |
TX | 5 | Lance Gooden | R | FALSE | 98.40 |
TX | 6 | Ron Wright | R | FALSE | 95.41 |
TX | 7 | John Culberson | R | TRUE | 46.07 |
TX | 8 | Kevin Brady | R | TRUE | 98.57 |
TX | 9 | Al Green | D | TRUE | 98.65 |
TX | 10 | Michael T. McCaul | R | TRUE | 96.61 |
TX | 11 | K. Michael Conaway | R | TRUE | 98.59 |
TX | 12 | Kay Granger | R | TRUE | 98.48 |
TX | 13 | Mac Thornberry | R | TRUE | 98.60 |
TX | 14 | Randy Weber | R | TRUE | 97.10 |
TX | 15 | Vicente Gonzalez | D | TRUE | 98.44 |
TX | 16 | Veronica Escobar | D | FALSE | 98.53 |
TX | 17 | Bill Flores | R | TRUE | 97.93 |
TX | 18 | Sheila Jackson Lee | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
TX | 19 | Jodey Arrington | R | TRUE | 98.58 |
TX | 20 | Joaquin Castro | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
TX | 21 | Chip Roy | R | FALSE | 84.13 |
TX | 22 | Pete Olson | R | TRUE | 92.28 |
TX | 23 | Will Hurd | R | TRUE | 62.37 |
TX | 24 | Kenny Marchant | R | TRUE | 95.89 |
TX | 25 | Roger Williams | R | TRUE | 94.77 |
TX | 26 | Michael Burgess | R | TRUE | 98.39 |
TX | 27 | Michael Cloud | R | TRUE | 98.01 |
TX | 28 | Henry Cuellar | D | TRUE | 98.55 |
TX | 29 | Sylvia R. Garcia | D | FALSE | 98.55 |
TX | 30 | Eddie Bernice Johnson | D | TRUE | 98.66 |
TX | 31 | John Carter | R | TRUE | 85.27 |
TX | 32 | Pete Sessions | R | TRUE | 81.71 |
TX | 33 | Marc Veasey | D | TRUE | 98.56 |
TX | 34 | Filemon Vela | D | TRUE | 98.47 |
TX | 35 | Lloyd Doggett | D | TRUE | 98.51 |
TX | 36 | Brian Babin | R | TRUE | 98.52 |
UT | 1 | Rob Bishop | R | TRUE | 98.42 |
UT | 2 | Chris Stewart | R | TRUE | 96.59 |
UT | 3 | John R. Curtis | R | TRUE | 98.46 |
UT | 4 | Mia Love | R | TRUE | 74.72 |
VA | 1 | Robert J. Wittman | R | TRUE | 97.24 |
VA | 2 | Scott Taylor | R | TRUE | 73.49 |
VA | 3 | Robert C. Scott | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
VA | 4 | A. Donald McEachin | D | TRUE | 98.42 |
VA | 5 | Denver Riggleman | R | FALSE | 56.63 |
VA | 6 | Ben Cline | R | FALSE | 98.06 |
VA | 7 | Dave Brat | R | TRUE | 49.87 |
VA | 8 | Don Beyer | D | TRUE | 98.58 |
VA | 9 | Morgan Griffith | R | TRUE | 97.72 |
VA | 10 | Jennifer Wexton | D | FALSE | 77.82 |
VA | 11 | Gerald E. Connolly | D | TRUE | 98.50 |
VT | 1 | Peter Welch | D | TRUE | 98.59 |
WA | 1 | Suzan DelBene | D | TRUE | 98.35 |
WA | 2 | Rick Larsen | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
WA | 3 | Jaime Herrera Beutler | R | TRUE | 90.16 |
WA | 4 | Dan Newhouse | R | TRUE | 97.94 |
WA | 5 | Cathy McMorris Rodgers | R | TRUE | 75.22 |
WA | 6 | Derek Kilmer | D | TRUE | 98.48 |
WA | 7 | Pramila Jayapal | D | TRUE | 98.64 |
WA | 8 | Kim Schrier | D | FALSE | 55.32 |
WA | 9 | Adam Smith | D | TRUE | 96.77 |
WA | 10 | Denny Heck | D | TRUE | 98.44 |
WI | 1 | Bryan Steil | R | FALSE | 67.75 |
WI | 2 | Mark Pocan | D | TRUE | 98.77 |
WI | 3 | Ron Kind | D | TRUE | 98.14 |
WI | 4 | Gwen Moore | D | TRUE | 98.57 |
WI | 5 | F. James Sensenbrenner | R | TRUE | 97.10 |
WI | 6 | Glenn Grothman | R | TRUE | 79.38 |
WI | 7 | Sean P. Duffy | R | TRUE | 97.58 |
WI | 8 | Mike Gallagher | R | TRUE | 97.79 |
WV | 1 | David McKinley | R | TRUE | 98.28 |
WV | 2 | Alex Mooney | R | TRUE | 96.22 |
WV | 3 | Carol Miller | R | FALSE | 86.53 |
WY | 1 | Liz Cheney | R | TRUE | 98.49 |
This is just more fake news. what makes you the predicter of elections? Libtards will go down soy boy.
So, you’ve got 3 Fox News/Gab style slogans, one misspelled word, and grammatical issues vs. my hours and hours of time invested in not only this project but machine learning in general…
That being said, to answer your one actual question:
This post represents my best estimate of what will happen based on the best available data that I gathered, combined, collated, re-shaped, ran through custom functions, and spit back out without any prejudice on my end whatsoever.
Unlike ( apparently ) you, I can separate political bias from data analysis.
In other words, time will prove me right or wrong, but it won’t be because I can’t see anything without red or blue tinted glasses.
FiveThirtyEight gives your scenario a 2.2% chance of happening…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Not bad considering their best guess only has a 2.6%
My 2.2% is well within their actual box 🙂
and it gives me 2.6 chance in the Deluxe Model!
It looks like your model is not figuring in Donald Trumps negative approval rating. Incumbent presidential negative rating has been directly correlated to wave midterm elections.
And Donald Trump’s approval rating is starting to tank right after I published. Doh!