As of today there are 523 candidates who have filed to run for president. This includes 175 Democratic and 70 Republican candidates.
As of today my bots and agents have identified 27 people that have a greater than 0.1% chance to win the presidency in 2020. Not all of them have decided to run yet much less filed.
I published my first look at the 2020 election way back in the summer of last year. I have refined my code and my process since and have a much more sustainable model going forward.
All of the potential candidates identified would run either as a Democrat or Republican assuming Bernie runs again and assuming he runs as a democrat. Although the way the DNC screwed him last time I wouldn’t blame him if he didn’t. But I digress…
Donald Trump 2020
Donald Trump has the best odds to win at the moment. This is simply because it’s a horse race on the blue team with no fewer than 23 Democrats making this list. These odds will obviously change going forward. I will continue to update the odds or a regular basis right up until election day 2020.
When it gets down to a one on one race the Democratic candidate should have better odds then Trump. Right now the generic ballot seems to indicate that there is a 43.9 % chance of a Republican president and 56.1 % chance of a Democratic president in 2020.
One of the more interesting things I learned during this process is that Vegas, more than any of the polls, thinks that a different Republican has decent ( even if still very low ) odds of being the president in 2020. Nikki Haley and John Kasich have better odds than a number of Democrats. Vice President Mike Pence appears to be the most likely Republican 2020 President not named Donald Trump.
Without further ado: