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Quality blog content since 2006
- the successor the imjtk.com

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Democratic Nominee Odds January 13th 2020

January 14, 2020 Politico
Democratic Nominee Odds January 13th 2020

Since Cory Booker decided to call it quits today I thought it was as good a time as any to run my 2020 Democratic Nominee model.

My system takes into account recent polls, Vegas odds, media and social media mentions and followers; and my own special “trendiness” rating. I rate the trendiest of everything, why should the candidates for the democratic nomination be any different.

This month my results are very interesting indeed. I have Bernie in a virtual tie with Biden atop my rankings. I’ve had Bernie Sanders on a steady climb since mid October. Sen. Warren has had a steady collapse since the same time. She’s down way more than he’s up.


There are no other reports that have Andrew Yang ahead of Bloomberg, but I think it’s clear that he is. Bloomberg’s support is the shallowest of this middle tier. Bovada has the odds of Yang getting elected the same as Hillary; he gets no respect but he is moving in my system.

I have Gabbard ahead of Klobuchar, if the trend continues I don’t see how Klobuchar continues for much longer.

Obviously my system thinks that they do not have the right people on the debate stage this time around…

The General Election

As I continue to run my sim on potential general election match ups I noticed a couple of interesting things:

As of right now Pete Buttigieg has the best odds (-1) to defeat Donald Trump in Iowa. In a number of my simulations Iowa to the Dems would make the difference between a victory and four more years of Trump.

Biden is the only Dem I have beating Trump in Arizona and Virginia.

I’ll run my system again after the dust from the next debate settles. Stay Tuned.

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