Just Like the White Wing Dove
This is where I moved all the blog content then...
Just Like the White Wing Dove
This is where I moved all the blog content then...

Blog Post

Democratic Nominee Odds January 13th 2020

January 14, 2020 Politico
Democratic Nominee Odds January 13th 2020

Since Cory Booker decided to call it quits today I thought it was as good a time as any to run my 2020 Democratic Nominee model.

My system takes into account recent polls, Vegas odds, media and social media mentions and followers; and my own special “trendiness” rating. I rate the trendiest of everything, why should the candidates for the democratic nomination be any different.

This month my results are very interesting indeed. I have Bernie in a virtual tie with Biden atop my rankings. I’ve had Bernie Sanders on a steady climb since mid October. Sen. Warren has had a steady collapse since the same time. She’s down way more than he’s up.

CandidatePercent
Biden22.67
Sanders22.26
Buttigieg14.26
Warren13.77
Yang8.76
Bloomberg5.63
Gabbard4.42
Klobuchar4.28
Steyer3.02
99.07

There are no other reports that have Andrew Yang ahead of Bloomberg, but I think it’s clear that he is. Bloomberg’s support is the shallowest of this middle tier. Bovada has the odds of Yang getting elected the same as Hillary; he gets no respect but he is moving in my system.

I have Gabbard ahead of Klobuchar, if the trend continues I don’t see how Klobuchar continues for much longer.

Obviously my system thinks that they do not have the right people on the debate stage this time around…

The General Election

As I continue to run my sim on potential general election match ups I noticed a couple of interesting things:

As of right now Pete Buttigieg has the best odds (-1) to defeat Donald Trump in Iowa. In a number of my simulations Iowa to the Dems would make the difference between a victory and four more years of Trump.

Biden is the only Dem I have beating Trump in Arizona and Virginia.

I’ll run my system again after the dust from the next debate settles. Stay Tuned.

Taggs:
Write a comment