Democratic Nominee Odds January 13th 2020
Since Cory Booker decided to call it quits today I thought it was as good a time as any to run my 2020 Democratic Nominee model.
My system takes into account recent polls, Vegas odds, media and social media mentions and followers; and my own special “trendiness” rating. I rate the trendiest of everything, why should the candidates for the democratic nomination be any different.
This month my results are very interesting indeed. I have Bernie in a virtual tie with Biden atop my rankings. I’ve had Bernie Sanders on a steady climb since mid October. Sen. Warren has had a steady collapse since the same time. She’s down way more than he’s up.
There are no other reports that have Andrew Yang ahead of Bloomberg, but I think it’s clear that he is. Bloomberg’s support is the shallowest of this middle tier. Bovada has the odds of Yang getting elected the same as Hillary; he gets no respect but he is moving in my system.
Obviously my system thinks that they do not have the right people on the debate stage this time around…
The General Election
As I continue to run my sim on potential general election match ups I noticed a couple of interesting things:
As of right now Pete Buttigieg has the best odds (-1) to defeat Donald Trump in Iowa. In a number of my simulations Iowa to the Dems would make the difference between a victory and four more years of Trump.
Biden is the only Dem I have beating Trump in Arizona and Virginia.
I’ll run my system again after the dust from the next debate settles. Stay Tuned.