Democratic Party 2020 Nominee Prediction in April 2019

As I’ve done every Monday this year,  this morning I ran my scripts that gather data about the potential Democratic presidential nominees.

I’ve crunched those numbers, and run them through a bit of machine learning magic, and generated predictions.  The predictions are the percentage chance that each significant candidate gets the Democratic Party 2020 Presidential Nomination.

2020 Democratic Party Presidential Candidates % Predictions

This week Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues the climb he started last time I published my predictions.  He moves all the way up to number 6.  He was 12th this time last month.

Tulsi Gabbard breaks into the top ten for the first time.  She has moved up each and every week for the past two and a half months, although in much smaller increments than Buttigieg.

The top four stay fairly consistent which is good news for Beto.  While his rise has slowed he has managed to maintain his position, more or less, for a month.

 Rank Candidate April March
 1 Joe Biden 12.5 12.62
 2 Bernie Sanders 12.25 15.04
 3 Kamala Harris 10.74 12.68
 4 Beto O’Rourke 10.25 9.92
 5 Elizabeth Warren 8.97 8.85
 6 Pete Buttigieg 7.52 2.7
 7 Cory Booker 6.16 8.06
 8 Amy Klobuchar 5.75 6.03
 9 Tulsi Gabbard 5.59 2.19
 10 Kirsten Gillibrand 4.74 4.78
 11 John Hickenlooper 3.94 3.12
 12 Julián Castro 3.8 2.99
 13 Andrew Yang 2.58 0.85
 14 Tim Ryan 1.55 0.41
 15 John Delaney 1.3 2.42
 16 Jay Inslee 1.45 2.01
 17 Steve Bullock 0.91 1.92

Bernie, Biden, and Sen. Harris have been trading the top spot back and forth all year; Beto however is closing in on the top tier.  My model might be ranking Biden to high as not all news is good news.

As I continue to learn and tweak my algorithm ( as I do constantly… ) I plan to add sentiment analysis as part of my media saturation metric.

Gillibrand and Castro continue to fade…  Tim Ryan got very little bounce from announcing.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *