The biggest news over the last couple of weeks re: the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination has been who was in and who was going to be left out of the debates.
My numbers suggest that it should be very simple.
I’ve been tracking the candidates since the first of the year, and while the field continues to grow the number of candidates that have a chance of winning has not.
There are only eleven candidates that have a better than 1% chance of winning:
Joe Biden maintains the lead but has come back to the pack a little over the last 30 days.
@PeteButtigieg‘s momentum seems to have stalled.
The chart below shows the ups and downs of 11 democrats with better than 1% odds over the past few months.
As opposed to just relying on polling, my numbers incorporate news and social media popularity, an amalgamation of polls, and cross section of published odds by a variety of betting sites.
One of the most interesting take away’s from the data this month is that the betting markets like
@AndrewYang‘s chances to claim the #Democratic Party nomination anywhere from 4 to 6 times more than the polls do. This is easily the biggest discrepancy of any of the candidates.