March 2019 Democratic Candidates Chances for the 2020 Presidential Nomination

Welcome to the March 2019 version of my quest to provide continual snapshots of who is winning the race to be the Democratic nominee in 2020.

After a suggestion by a reader over on Minds I have switched up the format a little.   I am now providing actual percentages of each candidates chances to gain the nomination.

As the process continues I am adding additional criteria to get a better sense of the state of the race.

One of the most interesting insights I gleaned this month is that is the clear establishment choice at this point.

Her likeability among likely Democrats who’ll be voting is second tier at best…

The data also suggests that if Joe Biden is going to run he needs to announce.  He has slipped a bit from last month as others have gotten a post announcement boost.

March 2019 Democratic Candidates 2020 Nominee Chances

 Candidate % Chance
 Bernie Sanders 15.04
 Kamala Harris 12.68
 Joe Biden 12.62
 Beto O’Rourke 9.92
 Elizabeth Warren 8.85
 Cory Booker 8.06
 Amy Klobuchar 6.03
 Kirsten Gillibrand 4.78
 John Hickenlooper 3.12
 Julián Castro 2.99
 Pete Buttigieg 2.7
 John Delaney 2.42
 Tulsi Gabbard 2.19
 Jay Inslee 2.01
 Steve Bullock 1.92
 Terry McAuliffe 1.56
 Marianne Williamson 1.23
 Andrew Yang 0.85
 Mitch Landrieu 0.6
 Tim Ryan 0.41

The biggest changes from my last rankings is the number of candidates who have dropped out.  Bloomberg, Brown, Jeff Merkley, and Eric Holder all have decided not to run.

If you think that my percentages are crazy check out this link from “The Week”.  They give Andrew Yang has the same 2020 odds as Elizabeth Warren…


  1. Donald Trump and the Republicans is scared of Beto! The clubs of growth are running ads against him and he has not even announced the candidacy yet!!

    Run Beto Run!

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