If it’s a new month, it’s time for another edition of my Democratic Party 2020 nomination predictions/ratings/rankings.
This month the biggest shoe to drop was the Joe Biden announcement. While he was widely expected to jump into the race his official announcement, and the boost that he received from it, dominates this months ratings.
The Joe Biden announcement seems to have hurt Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders the most. We’ll have to wait and see if Biden’s announcement bump holds or if he comes back to the pack a little.
Biden’s rating this month is the highest total percentage any candidate has garnered since I started these rankings back in January. No candidate before this month amassed a quarter of the total – Biden’s 27.54% is fully 10% higher then second place Bernie Sanders.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is the candidate that is under performing the most. That is – she “should” be polling higher based on my own expected political performance statistic.
On the flip side Pete Buttigieg is over-performing at a higher rate than any other announced candidate. Announced being the keyword here – my numbers suggest that all bets are off if Stacey Abrams throws her hat in the ring…
May Democratic Party 2020 Nominee Rankings
| Rank | Candidate | Rating |
| 1 | Joe Biden | 27.54 |
| 2 | Bernie Sanders | 17.34 |
| 3 | Kamala Harris | 10.23 |
| 4 | Pete Buttigieg | 9.25 |
| 5 | Elizabeth Warren | 8.5 |
| 6 | Beto O’Rourke | 6.5 |
| 7 | Cory Booker | 3.25 |
| 7 | Amy Klobuchar | 3.25 |
| 7 | Andrew Yang | 3.25 |
| 10 | Tulsi Gabbard | 2.25 |
| 11 | Kirsten Gillibrand | 1.75 |
| 12 | Julián Castro | 1.37 |
| 13 | John Delaney | 1.02 |
| 14 | Jay Inslee | 0.87 |
| 15 | John Hickenlooper | 0.75 |
| 16 | Tim Ryan | 0.69 |
| 17 | Seth Moulton | 0.68 |
| 18 | John Delaney | 0.55 |
| 19 | Steve Bullock | 0.49 |
| 20 | Michael Bennet | 0.47 |
My theory that there are three tiers of candidates seems to be holding although the second tier seems to be expanding. Sen Harris is in danger of falling into the second tier after being firmly in the first tier back in March.
The newest declared candidates Moulton and Bennet do not seem to be creating any buzz or gaining any traction.
Eric Swalwell was less than .10