Now that the NFL Scouting Combine hype machine has come to a close, I thought it would be a good time to send out my scrapy agents to gather mock draft opinions from across the web.
I collected a variety of 2019 NFL mock draft lists from dozens of sources, well known and otherwise. I ran this data through some Python magic to create a meta mock draft.
2019 NFL Meta Mock Draft
This mock draft is different from others that you might run across. It’s not my opinion. This mock draft is essentially the opinions of dozens of other people – a meta mock draft if you will.
These people range from NFL Insiders, to other programmers, to mainstream sports sites. I weighted the mock drafts that have been published during and after the combine to have more weight than the ones published previously.
Weighting by timeliness makes a huge difference atop the draft.
If I filter out the newest mocks and only process the older ones Nick Bosa is the number one pick, while my current model has the Arizona Cardinals taking Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray with the number one overall pick.
D.K. Metcalf and Montez Sweat also seem to be getting a post combine boost. Apropos of nothing they both played for Mississippi based teams in college…
Ed Oliver and Greg Little were both once talked about as number one overall picks at various time. They have now settled down into the middle of the first round.
In a defensive heavy draft class, devoid of top tier quarterback talent, there are still four QB’s I project to be drafted in the first round.
The projection that my model has the highest confidence in is that Dwayne Haskins will be drafted by the New York Football Giants with the 6th overall pick at 87.5% probability.
2019 First Round Meta Mock Draft
|1||Arizona Cardnials||Kyler Murray||QB|
|2||San Francisco 49ers||Nick Bosa||Edge|
|3||New York Jets||Josh Allen||Edge|
|4||Oakland Raiders||Quinnen Williams||DT|
|5||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Jawaan Taylor||OT|
|6||New York Giants||Dwayne Haskins||QB|
|7||Jacksonville Jaguars||Jonah Williams||OT|
|8||Detroit Lions||Rashan Gary||Edge|
|9||Buffalo Bills||Ed Oliver||DT|
|10||Denver Broncos||Drew Lock||QB|
|11||Cincinnati Bengals||Devin White||LB|
|12||Green Bay Packers||Montez Sweat||Edge|
|13||Miami Dolphins||Daniel Jones||QB|
|14||Atlanta Falcons||Christian Wilkins||DL|
|15||Washington Redskins||D.K. Metcalf||WR|
|16||Carolina Panthers||T.J. Hockenson||TE|
|17||Cleveland Browns||Marquise Brown||WR|
|18||Minnesota Vikings||Greg Little||OT|
|19||Tennessee Titans||Greedy Williams||CB|
|20||Pittsburgh Steelers||Devin Bush||LB|
|21||Seattle Seahawks||Deionte Thompson||S|
|22||Baltimore Ravens||A.J. Brown||WR|
|23||Houston Texans||Byron Murphy||CB|
|24||Oakland Raiders (via Chicago)||Clelin Ferrell||EDGE|
|25||Philadelphia Eagles||Josh Jacobs||RB|
|26||Indianapolis Colts||Jachai Polite||EDGE|
|27||Oakland Raiders (via Cowboys)||Chauncey Gardner||S|
|28||Los Angeles Chargers||Jerry Tillery||DT|
|29||Kansas City Chiefs||Deandre Baker||CB|
|30||Green Bay Packers (via Saints)||N’Keal Harry||WR|
|31||Los Angeles Rams||Jaylon Ferguson||DE|
|32||New England Patriots||Noah Fant||TE|
My model also shows a very high probability that if Tight End Noah Fant is still around at the end of the first round that the New England Patriots will snatch him up. Amazingly he would be the 2nd Iowa Hawkeyes TE taken in the first round…
Even more amazing is that Iowa isn’t the only college team placing 2 receivers in the first round. A.J Brown would join the aforementioned D.K. Metcalf as the 2nd Ole Miss wide receiver taken in round one.
As draft day approaches I will post an updated meta mock draft as new data is published.
I will include some trades in that mock – but interestingly it doesn’t seem to significantly change which teams pick which players. It will mostly effect where a team picks said player.